09

Jan

CPM and Price of a Super Bowl Ad Over Time

Yesterday the New York Times reported that the average price for a Super Bowl ad was between $3.7 million and $3.8 million this year. Here is the average price of a Super Bowl spot over time, adjusted for inflation:

CPM represents the cost for every thousand viewers. The ratings for each game are from Zap2It. I found historical price data on Wikipedia, although I do not completely trust the numbers; I edited what appears to be an overly precipitous price drop after the dot com bubble burst. That said, others have been through this exercise before and the graphs look quite similar, so I believe the data are approximately correct.

03

Feb

Super Bowl Prediction Roundup

Update: Justin Verlander got the score of the Super Bowl exactly right.

Seems like everyone’s willing to make a Super Bowl prediction. In fact, even a camel, gorilla, rhinoceros, and ostrich are getting in on the action. After spending a few minutes browsing Google News, I was able to put together a list of 120 different predictions that includes celebrities, pundits, and high school football coaches. Maya Angelou, for example, favors the Giants, while Vanilla Ice is a Patriots man.

Of these 120 predictions, 62 (52%) picked the Giants to win. On average, the Patriots are forecast to score 25.0 points versus the Giants’ 25.1 points. The median point prediction for both teams was 24. The average margin of victory was 5.5 points, with a median value of 4 points. While the score totals are in line with historical Super Bowl averages (45.8 points), the projected margin of victory is way below historical averages (14.3), as detailed in my last post.

Here’s a (highly smoothed) summary of the data. Frankly, it’s not that interesting, since forecasters were basically split on the winner.

And here’s the full table. Enjoy the game, everyone.

IB Times - Patriots, 28-24

Jason Witten - Giants, 31-27

Arnold Schwarzenegger - Patriots, 31-24

Penn & Teller - Patriots, 31-27

Jenna Fischer - Patriots, 31-28

Justin Verlander - Giants, 21-17

Bleacher Report - Giants, 24-20

Arnold Palmer - Giants, 28-17

Maya Angelou - Giants, 20-7

John McEnroe - Giants, 24-21

Haley Joel Osmont - Giants, 34-31

Joan Jett - Giants, 38-35

Rudy Giuliani - Giants, 30-20

Bill O’Reilly - Giants, 27-24

Keith Olbermann - Giants, 27-17

Octavia Spencer - Giants, 27-24

Yogi Berra - Giants, 23-20

Mark Cuban - Giants, 38-31

Dick Vitale - Giants, 27-21

Bob Weir - Giants, 35-31

Hulk Hogan - Giants, 24-17

Chuck Yeager - Patriots, 31-27

Don Rickles - Patriots, 28-14

Abby Wombach - Patriots, 27-17

John Kerry - Patriots, 31-24

Paul Pierce - Patriots, 35-17

Barry Williams - Patriots, 31-17

Lindsey Vonn - Patriots, 23-20

Vanilla Ice - Patriots, 31-21

Jack Nicklaus - Patriots, 31-28

Andy Williams - Patriots, 13-10

Jackie Joyner-Kersee - Patriots, 20-17

Mike Tuck - Patriots, 27-20

Chris Corbellini - Patriots, 28-24

Robert Harding - Patriots, 38-35

Rick Horrow, Brian Finkel - Patriots, 38-17

Mike O’Hara - Giants, 27-16

Jamison Hensley - Patriots, 31-20

Jared Smith - Giants, 20-19

Connor Kiesel - Giants, 28-24

Mike Reiss - Patriots, 30-20

Steven Krasner - Giants, 17-14

Adam Jones - Patriots, 24-20

Andrew Brooks - Patriots, 31-23

Adam Schefter - Patriots, 27-16

Eric Mangini - Patriots, 34-31

Bill Simmons - Patriots, 24-19

Madden Simulation - Giants, 27-24

AccuScore Simulations - Patriots, 31-29

John Clayton - Patriots, 24-20

Dan Graziano - Giants, 31-24

James Walker - Patriots, 27-24

Jeffri Chadiha - Giants, 28-24

Ian O’Connor - Giants, 34-24

Mike Sando - Patriots, 27-23

Matt Williamson - Giants, 28-24

Bill Barnwell - Patriots, 27-23

Rich Cimini - Giants, 31-27

Gregg Easterbrook - Giants, 2-0

Kate Fagan - Giants, 31-27

David Fleming - Giants, 28-24

Chris Forsberg - Patriots, 17-14

Ashley Fox - Giants, 27-24

D.J. Gallo - Patriots, 27-24

Greg Garber - Giants, 16-13

Paul Kuharsky - Giants, 27-23

Jackie MacMullan - Patriots, 27-24

Elizabeth Merrill - Patriots, 21-20

Mike Rodak - Patriots, 27-24

Kevin Seifert - Giants, 27-21

Ross Tucker - Giants, 27-24

Seth Wickersham - Giants, 30-24

Bill Williamson - Patriots, 27-17

Pat Yasinskas - Giants, 28-24

Ohm Youngmisuk - Giants, 31-27

Tedy Bruschi - Patriots, 27-24

Michelle Beadle - Giants, 28-25

Cris Carter - Giants, 28-24

Colin Cowherd - Patriots, 28-27

Mike Ditka - Giants, 24-17

Mike Golic - Giants, 24-20

Mike Greenberg - Giants, 34-20

Jon Gruden - Patriots, 30-27

Tim Hasselbeck - Patriots, 27-24

Merril Hoge - Giants, 27-20

Tom Jackson - Giants, 24-20

Ron Jaworski - Giants, 27-21

Steve Levy - Giants, 31-30

Kenny Mayne - Patriots, 31-30

Chris Mortensen - Giants, 34-24

Sal Paolantonio - Patriots, 31-27

Jerry Rice - Giants, 28-21

Ryen Rusillo - Patriots, 24-20

Mark Schlereth - Patriots, 27-24

Mike Tirico - Patriots, 28-22

Scott Van Pelt - Patriots, 23-20

Trey Wingo - Patriots, 27-24

Damien Woody - Giants, 27-24

Gary Horton - Giants, 23-17

Doug Kretz - Giants, 24-21

Ken Moll - Patriots, 30-28

John Banks - Giants, 30-24

Larry Graham - Giants, 24-17

Alex Kimball - Giants, 31-23

Rico Longoria - Giants, 35-31

Rob Peterson - Giants, 33-30

Shawna Seed - Patriots, 27-24

Patrick Stiegman - Patriots, 37-31

Scott Symmes - Patriots, 24-20

Will Leitch - Patriots, 31-27

Norm Duhamel - Giants, 24-20

Sean Marinan - Giants, 24-14

Steve Filippone - Patriots, 27-24

Jon Keller - Patriots, 31-24

Swanni - Patriots, 20-14

Pete Prisco - Giants, 31-24

Greg Cote - Patriots, 31-27

Peter Schrager - Giants, 30-21

Tim Kawakami - Patriots, 37-21

Dan Connolly - Giants, 28-24