Facebook CPC and Swing States
I was curious if there was a strong correlation between swing state status and higher Facebook CPCs. The short answer appears to be yes. Here is the map; a darker green color means a higher Facebook CPC for users 35 and older:
Using swing state status as a dummy variable, there is a 44% correlation between being a swing state and Facebook CPC price. The average swing state CPC is $1.86 vs. $1.74 for non-swing states.
The analysis uses the midpoint of Facebook’s suggested CPC bid (i.e., a suggested $1.02 - $2.69 range has a midpoint of $1.86). States tagged as swing states are CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI. Using only those states that RealClearPolitics calls a “Toss Up” (dropping MN and NC), the correlation is 43%. Using all 23 states for which RCP tracks state polls (which includes states like GA and NM), the correlation drops to 28%.