03
Feb
Super Bowl Prediction Roundup
Update: Justin Verlander got the score of the Super Bowl exactly right.
Seems like everyone’s willing to make a Super Bowl prediction. In fact, even a camel, gorilla, rhinoceros, and ostrich are getting in on the action. After spending a few minutes browsing Google News, I was able to put together a list of 120 different predictions that includes celebrities, pundits, and high school football coaches. Maya Angelou, for example, favors the Giants, while Vanilla Ice is a Patriots man.
Of these 120 predictions, 62 (52%) picked the Giants to win. On average, the Patriots are forecast to score 25.0 points versus the Giants’ 25.1 points. The median point prediction for both teams was 24. The average margin of victory was 5.5 points, with a median value of 4 points. While the score totals are in line with historical Super Bowl averages (45.8 points), the projected margin of victory is way below historical averages (14.3), as detailed in my last post.
Here’s a (highly smoothed) summary of the data. Frankly, it’s not that interesting, since forecasters were basically split on the winner.

And here’s the full table. Enjoy the game, everyone.
Arnold Schwarzenegger - Patriots, 31-24
Penn & Teller - Patriots, 31-27
Jenna Fischer - Patriots, 31-28
Justin Verlander - Giants, 21-17
Bleacher Report - Giants, 24-20
Haley Joel Osmont - Giants, 34-31
Keith Olbermann - Giants, 27-17
Octavia Spencer - Giants, 27-24
Chuck Yeager - Patriots, 31-27
Abby Wombach - Patriots, 27-17
Barry Williams - Patriots, 31-17
Lindsey Vonn - Patriots, 23-20
Jack Nicklaus - Patriots, 31-28
Andy Williams - Patriots, 13-10
Jackie Joyner-Kersee - Patriots, 20-17
Chris Corbellini - Patriots, 28-24
Robert Harding - Patriots, 38-35
Rick Horrow, Brian Finkel - Patriots, 38-17
Jamison Hensley - Patriots, 31-20
Steven Krasner - Giants, 17-14
Andrew Brooks - Patriots, 31-23
Adam Schefter - Patriots, 27-16
Eric Mangini - Patriots, 34-31
Bill Simmons - Patriots, 24-19
Madden Simulation - Giants, 27-24
AccuScore Simulations - Patriots, 31-29
John Clayton - Patriots, 24-20
James Walker - Patriots, 27-24
Jeffri Chadiha - Giants, 28-24
Matt Williamson - Giants, 28-24
Bill Barnwell - Patriots, 27-23
Gregg Easterbrook - Giants, 2-0
Chris Forsberg - Patriots, 17-14
Jackie MacMullan - Patriots, 27-24
Elizabeth Merrill - Patriots, 21-20
Seth Wickersham - Giants, 30-24
Bill Williamson - Patriots, 27-17
Ohm Youngmisuk - Giants, 31-27
Tedy Bruschi - Patriots, 27-24
Michelle Beadle - Giants, 28-25
Colin Cowherd - Patriots, 28-27
Mike Greenberg - Giants, 34-20
Tim Hasselbeck - Patriots, 27-24
Chris Mortensen - Giants, 34-24
Sal Paolantonio - Patriots, 31-27
Ryen Rusillo - Patriots, 24-20
Mark Schlereth - Patriots, 27-24
Scott Van Pelt - Patriots, 23-20
Patrick Stiegman - Patriots, 37-31
Scott Symmes - Patriots, 24-20
Steve Filippone - Patriots, 27-24
Peter Schrager - Giants, 30-21
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